THOUGHTS ON CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING AND GERRYMANDERING

Watch the legislatures of the several States now that redistricting is afoot! The Cook Political Report recently made public a couple of charts that reflect political volatility in the marketplace of partisan ideas and ideologies.

Cook's first chart, the 2012 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART, lists by party those districts and Members of Congress vulnerable to being picked off. Cook lists three categories, likely, lean, and toss up, for each party. The second chart is Cook's report on HOUSE MEMBERS WHO WON WITH 55% OR LESS.

Missouri, known for being a traditional bell weather state has one District listed as "Lean Democratic" by Cook. That is Missouri's Third Congressional District which Cook gives a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+7.

In Missouri three Members of Congress won their 2010 races with 55% or less of the vote. Kansas City's Emanuel Cleaver held off his Republican opponent Jacob Turk to win a fourth term. This will be Cleaver's fourth term. He has now defeated Turk three times. Cleaver's winning percentage in 2010 was 56.1% The Cook PVI for the Fifth Congressional District in Missouri is D+10.

Republican Vicky Hartzler bested long time Democratic Representative Ike Skelton to win her first term in Congress. Republican redistricting efforts paid off for them in Missouri. I recall when Missouri's Fourth Congressional District was a small pocket of counties immediately to the East and South of Kansas City's Jackson County. Missouri's Fourth Congressional Index has a PVI of R+14.

Today the Fourth Congressional District goes deep into the heart of Southwest Missouri. It includes places like Lebanon, Missouri which used to be in the Seventh Congressional District. The Seventh Congressional District is a Republican Stronghold having produced Representatives Roy Blunt, Gene Taylor, and Durwood G. "Doc" Hall.

Russ Carnahan has been the Democrat representing Missouri's Third Congressional District since 2005. After Dick Gephardt retired Carnahan won the seat in 2004. This will be Carnahan's fifth term. He squeaked by his Republican opponent, Edward Martin, Jr., with a winning percentage of 48.9%. The last time the district lines changed in Missouri was 2003.

The Census Bureau has made available an online map to let you see which states will gain seats and which states will lose. It is located at: http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/.

Missouri is going to lose a seat in Congress after the redistricting dust settles. This will set up a contentious redistricting between the Governor, Democrat Jay Nixon, and his Republican controlled legislature. You can bet that in Missouri Republicans will want to continue whittling away at Democratic districts. Nixon will try to shave Republican areas back from seats currently held by Democrats.

The process will be more complicated in other states such as Arizona and Texas. These states have both the legislatures and the executive offices controlled by Republicans. Their dilemma is that each have to add seats and how do they splinter the vote so that the newly districts created are not Democratic? Much of the calculus for the population increase in these states is attributable to Hispanic voters, primarily non-Cuban Latinos. Due to the harshness of the Republican stance on Latinos, especially in these two states, drawing those lines will be difficult.

The Gerrymander

Expect to hear much discussion in the next two years about Gerrymandering. That is the process of drawing district lines to maximize your party's dominance and minimize the oppositions chances at being elected. The term originated in 1812 after redistricting in Massachusetts resulted in a district somewhat resembling a salamander. The name of the Governor, Elbridge Gerry, combined with the reptile to give the process a name.

About.com provides an excellent tutorial for those wanting to learn more about the process of Gerrymandering. Read it online at: http://geography.about.com/od/politicalgeography/a/gerrymandering.htm.

Isaac Newton "Ike" Skelton - was the best damn Congressman I ever had

Ike Skelton

I am 61 years old. During my life Missouri's Fourth Congressional District has been served by only three persons. George Christopher, William J. "Bill" Randall, and Isaac Newton "Ike" Skelton, IV.

George H. Christopher

George Christopher, who was born on a farm near Butler, Missouri, started his Congressional career representing Missouri's Sixth Congressional District, January 3, 1949-January 3, 1951, and ended in the Fourth, January 3, 1955 - January 23, 1959. George Christopher term ended with his death. The seat was vacant until March 3, 1959.

Jackson County Eatern District Judgde Bill Randall speaking at 1949 event unveiling a statue of county namesake Andrew Jackson

Bill Randall, an attorney and WWII veteran, was elected to Congress succeeding Christopher. From 1947 to 1959 Randall served as a Jackson County Judge. Despite the judicial appellation, Randall did not sit on the bench of Missouri's Sixteenth Judicial Circuit. In those days Jackson County, Missouri was run by a three person "court". Harry Truman served as Presiding Judge of this Executive Branch of Jackson County government from 1927 through 1934. Randall was an ally of President Truman. Randall served on the Armed Services Committee and was the first Chairman on the Select Committee on Aging. Bill Randall was in the Congress from 1959 to 1977 when he retired. I vividly remember a large billboard just east of Knobtown along what was then U.S.50 Highway urging the retention of Bill Randall in Congress. It stayed there for years! Bill Randall returned home to his law practice. He died in 2000.

"Ike" Skelton IV became a Congressman following Bill Randall's retirement. Ike hails from Lexington, Missouri. It is a small town, by big city standards, but large in history from any perspective. Ike's father met Jackson County's Presiding Judge Harry Truman in 1928, the two became friends. Ike attended President Truman's inauguration in January 20, 1949, Ike was 17, I was two months and a day old.

Ike was an Eagle Scout. He attended Lexington's Wentworth Military Academy, the oldest Military Academy west of the Mississippi River, where he earned his A.B. degree. Then Ike matriculated to Missouri's big school, MU. Ike graduated with an L.L.B. degree, they don't give those out anymore (now you have to earn a juris doctor or J.D.). Ike also attended Scotland's University of Edinburgh.

Skelton came home to practice law in Lexington. He ended up serving as Lafayette County's Prosecuting Attorney before his six year career as a State Senator. Ike Skelton became Missouri's Fourth District Representative to Congress in 1977.

Ike Skelton is a lot more conservative than me. That's okay with me. I have been represented in Congress by Democrats and Republicans from three states. My representatives included a House historian, Democrat Richard C. "Dick" Bolling; a conservative Republican stalwart and used car salesman, Gene Taylor; the poster boy for governmental penny pinching, Republican Jeff Flake; and the worst example of a corporate shill serving Wall Street rather than Main Street, the non-caring about anything but herself, Republican and Tea Party Caucus member Lynn Jenkins. Prior to Jenkins was Nancy Boyda the Republican turned Democrat turned defeated Congresswoman who was never hot or cold in staking out her partisan territory . Like the scripture suggests, voters rejected the lukewarm Boyda two years ago after her single term.

I never had better representation in Congress than I did by the good work and steady effort of Ike Skelton. Even after I left the district I believed Skelton's service to West Central Missouri bode well for America. I rested a bit easier each night because Ike was on the job.

In the outlandish and highly distorted campaign reports of Ike's voting record naught was said of how the bills he produced were passed by overwhelming bipartisan majorities. The debates on those bill were marked by effusive politeness and cordiality. I never saw any of the harsh rancor and name calling associated with the work of the Congress Chairman Skelton rose.

If Vicky Hartzler turns out to be a Lynn Jenkins clone then all the worse for America, Missouri, members of our Armed Services, veterans, and all who want the gridlock brought to a halt. We will feel the loss of Ike Skelton in Congress. Wall Street Fat Cats and special interests are the winners if Hartzler follows the Jenkins path. All I can say to my friends from Lexington to Lebanon is follow the money and turn FOX Propaganda off.

Ike Skelton was the best damn Congressman I ever had.