With thanks to Real Clear Politics, for their "create
your own map" feature, see, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html,
I wondered what would it be like if the result of the Presidential Campaign
looked like the Powerball Map. First,
here is the map.
To begin with there are 538 Electoral College votes. How, you ask did we get that number. It is simple, there are 435 Members of
Congress and 100 Senators. Add those two
numbers together and you get 535. The
three missing votes come from the District of Columbia. As you remember, the minimum number of votes
a state can have in the Congress is 3.
Each state gets at least 1 Representative to the House and 2
Senators. Missing from this map are the
U.S. Virgin Islands, which shows up on the Powerball Map but since they are not
a state not on the Electoral College Map.
What would be the circumstances that would cause Hawaii,
California, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming to join with two states from the Heart of
Dixie, Mississippi and Alabama and be the losers in the Electoral College? This is a big loss because the winner gets
449 votes to the loser's 89; And a victory of 449 votes is a landslide.
History shows us big wins (or losses depending on
perspective). In 1964 LBJ beat Goldwater
by 486 to 52. Goldwater was painted as
an extremist and carried only Arizona, the Gulf States of Louisiana,
Mississippi, Alabama, and the old Dixie States of Georgia and South Carolina.
In 1972 Tricky Dick Nixon rode his secret plan to end the
War in Vietnam to a landslide victory over McGovern, who won only Massachusetts
and the District of Columbia. That
margin was 520 to 17. Nixon did not
finish the term, he resigned in disgrace on August 8, 1974.
Ronald Reagan swept into a 1980 victory with a populist
conservative message and tough talk against Iran, who was holding Americans
taken during a siege of our embassy.
Reagan defeated Carter by 489 to 49, and the hostages were released on
inauguration day.
Carter got more electoral college votes against Reagan than
did his Vice President who lost four years later by a margin of 525 to 13.
Regan easily handled Mondale in the Presidential Debates, sexism may have
played a role as Geraldine Ferraro was the Democratic Party's choice for Veep,
and the negatives in the first term didn't stick to Reagan who was called the
"Teflon President". Mondale won his home state of Minnesota and the
District of Columbia.
George H. W. Bush beat Dukakis in 1988 by 426 to 111
painting the Massachusetts Governor as a crime coddling liberal. Dukakis carried Washington, Oregon,
Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode
Island, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia. Since 1988 no candidate has topped the 400
electoral vote count.
Winning by large margins is not always good. In a college level Political Science course,
years ago, Southwest Missouri State's Professor Alice Fleetwood Bartee
suggested the best wins are the closest wins.
Employing the theory of Occam's Razor, otherwise called the law of
economy, she taught that winning the simple majority puts less pressure on the
Administration to satisfy competing pressures.
So winning a great majority means that the President has to deliver on
promises to competing groups, which often spells doom for reelection.
In 1928 Republican Herbert C. Hoover beat the Democratic
candidate Alfred E. Smith by 444 to 87.
Smith carried Massachusetts, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama,
Georgia, and South Carolina.
Four years later FDR trounced Hoover 472 to 59. Of course there was enormous economic pain
following the Wall Street Stock Market Crash of 1929 and the onset of the Great
Depression. In 1936 FDR continued on to
another legendary win beating Kansan Alf Landon 523 to 8. Republicans started
to make inroads in 1940 win they ran Wendell L. Willke, who only lost to FDR by
449 to 82. In 1944 FDR again topped the
400 electoral college vote mark besting Thomas E. Dewey 432 to 99. FDR died April 12, 1945, having won more
electoral college votes than anyone else in history.
The 400 vote total didn't get topped until Ike ran in
1952. The man who commanded the Allied
Forces in Europe in World War II beat Adlai Stephenson by 442 to 89. Four years late he did it again 457 to 73.
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